The global marine fuel market is on track for modest growth, with demand expected to rise by just 2% by 2030. This slow pace is primarily driven by advances in fuel efficiency within the shipping industry. As a result, while international maritime trade is anticipated to increase by 13% over the same period, fuel consumption will not grow at the same rate.

The Asia-Pacific region is expected to see its share of the global marine fuel market rise by 3 percentage points, reaching 51% by 2030. However, looking further ahead, overall demand for marine fuel is expected to decline after the early 2030s, as continued efficiency improvements across fleets further reduce fuel consumption.

Oil-based marine fuel is expected to reach its peak in the mid-2020s, surpassing 5.3 million barrels per day. In contrast, liquefied natural gas (LNG) is poised to be the primary source of growth in the marine fuel market, gradually replacing nearly 0.6 million barrels per day of oil by 2030.

The growth of marine LNG is expected to decelerate after 2040 as synthetic fuels, or e-fuels, become more prevalent, replacing nearly 1.0 million barrels per day by 2050, driven by the greater availability and reduced cost of green hydrogen.