As tensions in the Red Sea begin to ease, oil executives are weighing the possibility of resuming navigation through the crucial waterway leading to the Suez Canal. However, companies remain wary, carefully assessing the security landscape and the actions of their competitors before making any major moves.

A significant test of this shift came earlier this week when a Liberian-flagged oil tanker—previously targeted in an attack—successfully sailed through the Red Sea. The Suez Canal Authority confirmed the transit, marking one of the first voyages since the Iran-backed Houthi rebels declared a partial halt to their assaults on commercial vessels. The Houthis announced they would limit their attacks to ships linked to Israel until a full ceasefire is implemented in Gaza, after which they would cease targeting them altogether.

A Waiting Game for the Industry

«Everyone is watching each other to see who takes the first step,» remarked Barbara Harrison, Vice President of Crude Supply and Trading at Chevron, during an industry conference in Houston.

Since November 2023, the Houthis have launched over 100 attacks on ships, sinking two, seizing another, and causing the deaths of at least four seafarers—actions they claim are in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. The ongoing threats forced major disruptions in global shipping, with many vessels rerouting around Africa’s southern tip or seeking alternative paths through the Panama Canal.

Despite the recent de-escalation, oil giants remain hesitant. «We have yet to see an increase in large energy companies using the Red Sea again,» said Taghi Taghi-Zada, Chief Trading Officer at SOCAR (State Oil Company of Azerbaijan). «That would be a real signal of confidence for others to follow.»

Simon James, Vice President of Crude Trading and Refinery Optimization at Equinor, echoed this cautious sentiment. «We need to monitor how the broader industry responds and, crucially, how the insurance market assesses the ongoing risks.»

For now, the industry remains in a tense holding pattern—keeping a close eye on early movers while evaluating the security and financial risks of returning to one of the world’s most vital shipping routes.